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Tatton Weekly Comment

Predicaments

30 November 2018

As November draws to a close, global stock markets have provided a positive last week to an otherwise bleak month for investors. And as it...

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Muted replay of 2015 or end of cycle approaching 2019?

23 November 2018

It certainly helped nerves this week that the US was distracted by their Thanksgiving celebrations and politics in the UK calmed down, after the Eurosceptic...

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Brexit drama vs. renewed global slow down fears

16 November 2018

It has undeniably been the most unnerving week in UK politics since the week following the Brexit referendum, when the British electorate unexpectedly rejected the...

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The American people have spoken

9 November 2018

It struck me this week how full of historic events the first weeks of November are. Guy Fawkes’ gun powder plot (1605), the end of...

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Good-bye cathartic October

2 November 2018

What a difference one month can make. At the end of September, one of the biggest conundrums of 2018 was the divergence of stock market...

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Stock markets suffer liquidity squeeze

26 October 2018

During the recovery from February’s stock market correction, we wrote on these pages that the upsurge in equities – particularly in the US – felt...

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Complicated picture suggests taking a step back

19 October 2018

The global equity market sell-off calmed this week, even though the predicted bounce back petered out sooner than most had expected with selling pressures already...

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Autopsy of a stock market sell-off

12 October 2018

Last week, we wondered why stock markets had not reacted more negatively to the latest upward wave of bond yields, when this had led to...

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A bond market sell off & our Brexit view

5 October 2018

Having written only last week that Trump’s trade wars may prove a bizarrely supportive factor towards safely unwinding overvalued bond markets, I feel as if...

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Poor politics containing bond market risks?

28 September 2018

As September and Q3/2018 drew to a close, investors enjoyed a second consecutive week of positive returns, ending the period not only with positive returns...

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Brexit clamour vs real market news

21 September 2018

The UK’s establishment had pinned high hopes on a Brexit breakthrough at the EU’s Salzburg (non-Brexit specific) summit. But the rest of the EU had...

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Financial Crisis – 10 years on

14 September 2018

It was 10 years ago this week that US investment bank Lehman Brothers, was allowed to default. This event marked the beginning of the ultimate...

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Interesting times ahead

7 September 2018

It has been one of those weeks where so much news comes across our desks that I do not quite know where to start and...

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Not the end of the world

31 August 2018

“Not the end of the world”

But not a walk in the park either. (Theresa May, Tue 28 August 2018) That’s how the Prime...

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Steady markets vs. noisy politics

24 August 2018

Following last week’s upheaval over Turkey’s currency nosedive, this week proved remarkably calm in markets. There was a broad recovery and the US’ S&P 500...

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Political strongman tactics come home to roost

17 August 2018

This week continued in decidedly risk-off mood in global stock markets, as concerns spread that Turkey’s currency tail spin could spread to all emerging markets...

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Summer heat wave makes way for return of political heat

10 August 2018

Having returned from my annual summer holiday that took me across the heat-parched landscapes of western Europe, it feels like I have been cheated for...

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A gentle deceleration?

3 August 2018

The week has been good for US tech giants, not great for Chinese and Hong Kong stocks, and choppy for UK and European companies.
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Hot air for a hot summer?

27 July 2018

Lothar is on holiday – Jim Kean, Head of Investment, writes from New York:

The summer holidays are underway and the silly season (that...

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Earnings are growing, why worry?

20 July 2018

Chris Swanepoel, our estimable head of AIM investments, says that he doesn’t know anybody who has stopped doing their weekly shopping because of Brexit or...

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Trump’s trade wars - Hard Brexit demonstration potential?

13 July 2018

What a week of drama and upset! For all the drama in the football, the political and global economic side were even more dramatic –...

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It is getting hot

6 July 2018

It was a week with two faces – strong economic data across the developed world on the one side and disruptive political rhetoric on the...

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Digesting or consolidating?

29 June 2018

A lot of digesting of changed realities seemed to be going on over the course of the week, and that is even before we start...

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Fragile recovery

22 June 2018

The stock market correction of February and March already feels a long time away and most investors with globally diversified multi asset portfolios should by...

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No Surprises

11 June 2018

From last week’s perspective – and in terms of what we wrote then - this week bore little in terms
of surprises. The US’ central...

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Delicate equilibrium

8 June 2018

One week after Italy’s disruptive reminder that capital markets are still quite sensitive to the wrong sort of news, equity and bond markets returned to...

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Ignore politics at your peril...

1 June 2018

It has been one of the more unnerving weeks in financial markets and judging by some of the questions from advisers and clients, the media...

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Far more interesting than GDPR!

25 May 2018

I suspect most will remember this 4th week in May of 2018 as GDPR email madness week. Hopefully you will have noticed that The Tatton...

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What's going on?

18 May 2018

What's the economic reality of some of this week's news and what does it mean?

On Wednesday it was revealed that wage growth in...

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Batten down the hatches?

14 May 2018


We recently received a number of questions from investors on whether we thought the economic and capital market cycle is coming to an end....

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Past the peak?

4 May 2018

We wrote last week how we observe that – after the recent correction - stock markets now appear to have entered a consolidation phase, expressed...

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Confusing signals?

27 April 2018

We are now over 90 days into this stock market correction and market action over the past week must have enforced the view of many...

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A mixture of messages

20 April 2018

As a youngster, our mum would occasionally treat us with a bag of “pick-n-mix” from the sweets counter at the old Woolworths. I say treat;...

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Peaking, plateauing or dimming – and how about that war?

13 April 2018

Considering the sheer volume of geopolitical war talk, it might seem surprising that stock markets ended the week up, not down. The reason for this...

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Could do better

6 April 2018

April and the second quarter of 2018 carried on exactly where March and Q1 had finished – volatile. The financial media made a big story...

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End of a stormy first quarter

29 March 2018

Investors might think it appropriate that the first quarter of the year should end with a damp Easter bank holiday weekend (at least in the...

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Now we know it's risky!

23 March 2018

Equity markets have taken a turn for the worse following the US’ probable imposition of “section 301” tariffs on China.

Undoubtedly, events that increase...

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Back to Normal?

16 March 2018

Over the course of last week it felt very much as though things were returning to normal after the short sharp shock in equity markets...

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Tariffs to growth

9 March 2018

It has been one of those weeks where it is hard to decide where to start, where to end and what to leave out. Most...

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Time to take some profits

5 March 2018

A changing inflation perspective will reshuffle the field of investment opportunities, but the global economy is set to continue to grow.

You can view...

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Change of direction or gradual normalisation?

23 February 2018

The end of the low volatility goldilocks stock market environment has been unnerving for investors, but it has also triggered a fascinating debate amongst economists...

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Breathing easier for the moment

16 February 2018

This week has been quite quiet in the UK. Of note, wages look set to rise more than 3% this year, stronger than 2.6% rise...

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Meteoric stock markets crash back to reality

9 February 2018

After the prolonged period of calmly up-trending stock markets (see chart above) the market correction that occurred over the last 10 days was perhaps overdue...

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Good news turns bad news – again

5 February 2018

Globally, stock markets finished one of the best Januaries on record only to start February with their worst week for two years. Of course, from...

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Surprises

26 January 2018

Stocks around the globe rose for yet another week while the US$ continued its downward trend. What made the week interesting, however was the change...

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US$ weakness versus Bitcoin and Carillion

19 January 2018

Across the mainstream media, the past week’s finance news was dominated by the collapse of construction conglomerate Carillion and the rapid fall of Bitcoin. However,...

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Bullish sentiment begins to ring alarm bells

12 January 2018

The new year is starting up with a dynamic in global capital markets that even the bulk of the optimistic forecasts had not anticipated. This...

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Encouraging kick-off

5 January 2018

2018 has started on a positive note. Despite widespread fears for capital market upset through the coming into force of MiFID II on January 3rd,...

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Tatton Weekly Comment

Tatton's 2018 Outlook

22 December 2017

As we move into 2018, the ‘end of the cycle’ has become the dominant topic for the investment community. After 10 years of both markets...

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2017 drawing to a close

15 December 2017

As we look forward to the Christmas holidays and the new year ahead, we also tend to look back at what the year...

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Progress

8 December 2017

The week began with a homemade Brexit debacle and ended with what many commentators saw as real progress towards a constructive future relationship building...

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You Have Reached Your Destination

6 December 2017

“We think 2018 will be the year that the reality of MIFID II really hits home for many advisers, especially those running a centralised investment...

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Sudden but not entirely unexpected

1 December 2017

It has been a week full of surprises and sudden turns of events, with the main unchanged parameter continuing to be the consistent and synchronised...

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Invincible markets?

24 November 2017

Global equity markets hit new all-time highs over the past week, now standing at a gain of roughly 18% for 2017. This took...

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Yield-curve flattening: a bad omen?

17 November 2017

After equity markets saw one of their longest winning streaks for quite some time, a bit of push-back from nervous traders and investors...

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Nervous investors herald more volatile markets

10 November 2017

Nervous investors herald more volatile markets Private investors with globally diversified multi-asset investment portfolios tend to be quite happy these days. That is, unless they have...

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UK rate rise: ‘one and done’ or beginning of rate hiking cycle?

3 November 2017

It has been an eventful start to November, following a full-on October that generated pleasing returns for investors in global capital markets...

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Trick or treat season

27 October 2017

It’s been a bit of a nervous week in equity markets, and not a brilliant week for bonds. In Europe, the ECB...

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30 years

20 October 2017

This week, the 30th anniversary of two formidable storms in October 1987 reminded us that extreme weather and capital market events are not...

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All-time highs and Q3 results outlook: Reasons to be fearful or optimistic?

13 October 2017

While the general public struggled with lack of political progress around the world, most western stock markets reached new highs. Fitting that...

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Bad news – good news

6 October 2017

Did I state last week that September had been a good month for stock markets? Well, looking at the above table, one must assume...

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Movements

29 September 2017

It has been a week full of political movements and stock markets managed to regain ground lost over the previous week.

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QT to reverse QE and 2-year transition period to soften Brexit

22 September 2017

There had been substantial anxiety in capital markets community about the day the US central bank would announce the reversal of its monetary policy of...

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BoE guides for year-end rate hike - Bluff or real?

15 September 2017

This week’s cartoon depicts aptly how roughly half of the UK’s economists and market commentators chose to interpret the Bank of England’s...

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‘Back to school’ amidst hurricanes, earthquakes and nuclear threats

11 September 2017

As the summer of 2017 is drawing to an end, we are relieved that much of what could have gone wrong over the summer,...

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Bad news, good news

1 September 2017

"For the full weekly, please click here" This week began (belatedly for us Britons) with bad news and seems to be ending with some good...

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Summer low or summer lull?

25 August 2017

The past week brought a stabilisation of stock markets, as buyers returned to buy the latest dip. It would seem that despite the looming announcement of...

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More sellers than buyers

18 August 2017

  Last week had news that felt like it should affect markets. Risks were obvious and it was unsurprising that risk assets came under pressure. As...

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Stocks take note of North Korea crisis - or do they?

11 August 2017

Over the week, the main global stock markets fell by between 2 and 3.5% and thereby finally appeared to acknowledge the heightened geopolitical risk levels...

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Consolidated base but momentum dwindling

4 August 2017

It’s been another week where political dramas have dominated the headlines, whether it was Trump’s revolving doors for his senior staff in the...

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Summer thoughts about the ‘longer term’

28 July 2017

As I wrote last week, capital markets are currently not exactly quiet or boring as one might reasonably expect in the middle of...

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Summer lull - delayed

21 July 2017

As the summer holiday season is getting into full swing, one would expect capital markets to be calm. The opposite was the...

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Pre summer-holiday investment check

14 July 2017

As we head towards the summer holidays, it’s worth checking on some of the expectations we had at the start of the year.

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Global growth ploughs on while markets take a breather

7 July 2017

Rather unsurprisingly, investment returns’ upward momentum slowed in Q2, and in some cases reversed, following the very strong results of the first quarter. In particular,...

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Return of the Taper Tantrum?

30 June 2017

In almost perfect alignment with the turn of the British summer weather, capital markets turned distinctly soggy over the past week. This, however,...

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Quo Vadis Britain?

23 June 2017

It is almost exactly a year since Britain’s electorate voted to leave the EU. In the 12 months since, extraordinary consumer resilience first catapulted...

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Central Banks - None the Wiser

16 June 2017

While politics and another desperately sad case of corporate man-slaughter dominated UK news, economics at home and abroad were dominated by central bank...

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Strong and Stable?

9 June 2017

On 18 April, when PM Theresa May announced that she would ask the UK’s electorate to give her an enhanced Brexit negotiation...

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Expected and unexpected turns of events

2 June 2017

2017 asset class returns up to 31 May

May brought global multi asset class investors a welcome boost of their 2017 year to date...

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End of globally synchronised growth upswing

26 May 2017

At the end of weeks like this, I tend to struggle with the prospect of writing about the economy and global...

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Trump trade reversal – sign of things to come?

19 May 2017

It’s always the same. The moment you comment on an anomaly in the markets, it either ends or is significantly challenged. Last week,...

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Political volatility vs. market calm

12 May 2017

The sigh of relief could be felt across all media channels last Sunday evening, when it became clear that the polls...

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Megaphone politics calming the stock markets?

5 May 2017

It has been a week so full of new developments that it is hard to know where to start. So, let me start...

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Pollsters win again / 100 days Trump / economy slows / risk appetite returns

28 April 2017

The first round of the French presidential election coming exceedingly close to pollsters’ forecasts seemed to be an almost bigger relief to stock...

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Snap - political risks return – or do they?

21 April 2017

It appeared very opportunistic of Theresa May to call a snap election on June 8, after the latest polls showed the Tory party...

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Rollercoaster of expectation changes

13 April 2017

For most, the Easter holidays mark the drawing to a close of the year’s first quarter. Although I have already, over the past 2...

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Constructive tones amongst much noise

7 April 2017

Compared to the decent Q1 asset class returns, as shown above, the month of April started on a more muted note. However, after 12...

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Remarkable market resilience

31 March 2017

Considering the political developments during the month of March, stock and bond markets ended the first quarter of 2017 on a surprisingly...

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Returning themes

24 March 2017

The senseless terror suffered by innocent tourists and Londoners last week was a stark reminder that 2017 still carries many of the same issues as...

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Return of the ‘old normal’ or calm before the storm?

17 March 2017

Scanning the events that made the financial news of the past week it would appear difficult to choose what to comment on.    US employment highest...

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February 2017 asset class returns

3 March 2017

2017 has started well for investors with stock markets climbing to new highs, while bonds also posting gains. The bond gains probably...

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One year on from the last stock market correction

24 February 2017

It is now roughly one year since many market experts were adamant that the stock market correction of January and February...

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Market focus returns to Europe

10 February 2017

Market focus returned to Europe as US president Trump made his first sobering experience with the nation’s well-established system of checks and balances, when the...

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From ‘Trump Bump’ to ‘Trump Slump’?

3 February 2017

When the globally renowned weekly paper The Economist, runs the picture below with the title: "An Insurgent in the White House"...

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Consumers make UK the G7 growth champion

27 January 2017

In case readers were expecting the latest interpretation of US president Trump’s outrageous policy announcements to dominate this week, we are afraid you may...

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Living with new realities

13 January 2017

Stock markets have hit new all-time highs already this year, while government bond markets have calmed down markedly after their violent correction in...

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Growth boosting ‘Animal Spirits’ finally returning?

6 January 2017

From a market perspective, 2017 has started on the same tune as 2016 ended: Stronger than expected economic data reports buoy risk asset...

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Tatton Weekly Comment

Good-bye 2016 – Hello 2017!

16 December 2016

As Christmas draws closer we all have the peculiar habit of looking back at the last 12 months and then attempting to forecast...

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Santa Rally?

9 December 2016

With Italy losing its government after the referendum No and the European Central Bank indicating lessening monetary support from April 2017 onwards, the...

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Exchange rates return to the spot light

2 December 2016

The past week brought some surprises as well as some interesting developments, which in combination served to underpin recent improvements in market sentiment,...

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Bond market volatility takes centre stage

18 November 2016

Last week I commented about the similarities between the post-Trump and the post-Brexit reaction of financial markets. This week I need to slightly qualify this...

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Are financial markets ignoring the Trump risk?

11 November 2016

A deeply divided nation has elected the maverick outsider Donald Trump to be president of the United States. Voters thereby taught the establishment of the political...

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Are markets bracing for a ‘President Trump’?

4 November 2016

While the asset class returns table for the end of October show very strong Global investment returns for £‑Sterling based investors, the first week of...

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Sobering October

28 October 2016

As the month of October draws to a close it becomes seemingly apparent that there is a growing discrepancy between the assessment of...

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UK government bonds caught in £-Sterling’s downdraft?

21 October 2016

Over the course of the last months I had repeatedly warned on these pages that UK government bonds (gilts) had run out...

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Markets buffeted by political risk and economic realities

14 October 2016

Political mudslinging in the US presidential election campaign has had journalists around the world wondering how much lower the supposed stalwart nation...

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Politics are back - £-Sterling plunges - again!

7 October 2016

As we suspected and had forewarned, politicians have become the main drivers of capital markets over the past week. Theresa May, as the...

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Definitely not (yet) Taper Tantrum II

23 September 2016

Fears that the world’s central banks might take away the candy dissipated substantially this week. We take a look at both decisions...

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Taper Tantrum II?

16 September 2016

The past week continued the pattern that had started in the previous week, consolidation of both bond and equity markets following the...

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Back to school – end of Goldie-Locks

9 September 2016

The past week ended with a little bang as equity markets lost between 1 and 2% in the wake...

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UK business sentiment rebound

5 September 2016

Both the week and the month closed on a strong note for investors. Our asset class returns table for August shows that all...

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Have markets ‘run out of road’?

26 August 2016

The great vacation is upon us, at least in equity market terms. The profit-taking from last week’s highs has not led to much...

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Have markets ‘run out of road’?

19 August 2016

The past week has been as quiet as one would expect for the middle of August. Focal points were better than expected UK...

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Ultra-low UK yields ‘medicine’ brings challenges but drives up returns

12 August 2016

It has now been more than a week since the Bank of England (BoE), the UK’s central bank, halved interest rates to 0.25%...

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Market rally despite UK’s central bank announcing emergency support measures for the economy

5 August 2016

The post Brexit Referendum summer of 2016 is panning out to be one of the most confusing periods for investors for quite a...

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Summer blues on the horizon?

29 July 2016

The summer holiday season is kicking off in earnest, and after 5 weeks of the post Brexit ‘Goldilocks’ rally in both stock and...

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Market exuberance or dawn of a post fiscal austerity era?

22 July 2016

Stock markets reached new highs for the year over the past week and our investment portfolio returns for 2016 have moved up from...

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“It’s an ill wind that blows nobody any good”…

8 July 2016

 

would be forgiven for thinking that the travails of the open-ended commercial property funds would be accompanied by a sharp fall in all risk...

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Oil price and bond yield moves cause stock market roller coaster

10 June 2016

Having reported last week about a good start to June after a decent month of May, the end of the past week brought...

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Sell in May and go away?

3 June 2016

The first week of June brought a raft of economic data updates as well as May’s results. A quick look at the table...

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Brexit fears wane, but UK economic momentum has suffered

27 May 2016

It feels to me that we may have seen a turning point in the EU-referendum campaign 2 weeks ago, when the Bank of...

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Rate rise anxiety returns, amidst stronger economic data

20 May 2016

It worried capital markets for most of last year and was the starting point to the Jan-Feb 2016 stock market tantrum: Concerns that...

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Search for direction after the recovery

6 May 2016

As warmer temperatures finally arrived with the beginning of May, capital market action confirmed that the upward momentum of the recovery rally...

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Falling US$ and rising oil prices vs. central banks’ cautioning

29 April 2016

Compared to recent weeks, the past week seemed relatively quiet in capital markets.   From our viewpoint however there was plenty going on. In...

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Politics, politics and politics but markets grind higher regardless

22 April 2016

This week the UK public were reminded that   a country’s economic outlook is significantly influenced by the quality of its trading relationships with its neighbours....

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Relative calm returns – as does rally scepticism

15 April 2016

Positive market sentiment continued as the quarterly corporate reporting season commenced with ALCOA in the US reporting revenues and earnings for the first quarter of...

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The Panama Papers revelations - Morality versus Legality

8 April 2016

This week our somewhat more shady cousins of the offshore wealth management sector grabbed most of the headlines. We have therefore dedicated a...

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April fool or permanent market truce as global economy ‘refuses’ to change course?

1 April 2016

Anybody who last looked at capital market returns in mid-February would assume reports of positive investment returns for Q1 2016 is a rather cruel April...

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Quiet markets as terrorist murders return

24 March 2016

Had complacency returned? Not regarding terrorists threatening our way of life I belief. After last week’s arrests in Brussels, there was an...

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Stock market recovery continues – because or despite US Fed meeting and UK budget?

18 March 2016

As the stock market recovery of the developed world continued and levels got ever closer back to where they had started the year,...

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ECB’s Draghi - ‘Super Mario’ once more

11 March 2016

We did not envy the European Central Bank’s president Mario Draghi with his task of last week. Not only did he have to...

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Smell of spring in the air

4 March 2016

During the first week of March, stock markets continued their recovery despite Chinese macro-economic data releases failing to impress and European updates being only marginally...

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Platform DFM Tatton goes through £2.5bn and is awarded Defaqto 5 star rating after completing 3 year track record

3 March 2016

Tatton Investment Management are pleased to announce its promotion from 4 to 5 stars by Defaqto, following completion of its first three year performance track...

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Referendum Déjà Vu

26 February 2016

After the sharp recovery bounce, stock markets consolidated somewhat as we had anticipated last week, before a rebounding oil price and falling £-Sterling on Brexit...

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Markets coming to their senses or just a ‘Bear Squeeze’?

19 February 2016

Over the past week, the direction of stock markets changed markedly for the better, although it waits to be seen whether this will have...

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Can markets cause a recession?

12 February 2016

Market volatility continued as anticipated last week, but took a decisive step towards causing more lasting potential damage to the real economy. This was as...

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Good riddance January – but will February bring investors relief?

5 February 2016

It’s official. January 2016 has been the worst for investors for at least 40 years – and that despite the absence of any notable global...

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Markets close tumultuous January on the up as US Fed keeps its cool

29 January 2016

As we wrote last week, it has become increasingly apparent that much of this January’s market sell-off has been driven by fears that...

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Crisis of confidence in central banks’ omniscience emerging as sell-off driver

22 January 2016

During last Friday’s frantic market action, which bore first signs of ‘capitulation’, I had hoped not having to write about depressed market conditions for a...

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Bear markets without recession tend to be brief

15 January 2016

The somewhat expected recovery rally early in the week wasn’t sustained, and towards the end of the week, markets were back to where...

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Tatton Weekly Comment

'Lift off' - with a dovish US rate hike

21 December 2015

The US rate rise came as no surprise to us, as the US central bank’s chair Janet Yellen had broadcast for almost a...

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2015 Review providing guidance for 2016 outlook?

11 December 2015

We have reached that time of the year when numerous outlook piece for the following year float across my desk. Somewhat surprisingly their...

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Bank of England's 5th November release turns into a cracker

10 November 2015

Another week of encouraging economic data, another week with stock markets struggling to make up their mind whether that’s good news or not good news....

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The wisdom of markets?

4 November 2015

There is a perceived wisdom that markets in aggregate reflect all available insights and therefore provide the best of all macro-economic forecasts available. On this...

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Rate rise anxiety returns, but fails to shock

4 November 2015

Had it not been for the penultimate US Fed central bank meeting, the past week could have been fairly uneventful. Markets began the week in...

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Is market sentiment turning?

3 November 2015

The past week was full of China and European Central Bank (ECB) news – at least if you are following the UK media. The state...

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